Economic outlook Real Estate
In a few words we tell you how we lived the Real Estate market in the United States in recent years, and how we look at the next scenarios. We share why it is not a good time to sell, but a good time to invest:
2022-2024
Cash flows deteriorated due to the 11 consecutive rate hikes in the United States, the costs of rate insurance (required by lenders), the slowdown in rents and overall occupancy.
2024 (Q1-Q2)
Economic indicators that were showing overheating are coming down and stabilizing. The CPI rose 0.3% in April 2024, there was 3.4% year-over-year growth over April 2023, and down from 3.5% in March.
Many projects are currently under stress and/or in trouble. Some with possibilities of recovery, and others in need of restructuring, so it is not the time to leave, but to wait for the projects to be sold.
2024 (Q3-Q4)
All indications point to a possible rate cut and this is driving asset values higher. The U.S. economy looks healthy. Many investors were expecting a change of cycle and now see the possibility of investing the accumulated capital. It is a good time to take positions and invest early.
2025 - 2026
A large volume of institutional investors are expected to return to the market, and the winning projects will be those with a substantial ESG footprint.